Major global markets are already in a bear market or getting close, stoking fears of slowing growth

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Major global markets are already in a bear market or getting close, stoking fears of slowing growth

19 Dec 2018
KEY POINTS

- Growing trade uncertainty, weak economic indicators and a series of domestic political challenges have pushed major stock market indexes in China, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Germany and Mexico into bear market territory.

- More could be on the way as growth fears multiply — key benchmarks in Spain, France and Russia are all less than 5 percent away from bear market territory.

- Recent signs have suggested the slowing growth could be affecting U.S. equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are all sitting in correction territory for the first time since March 2016.


Several major stock indexes are at or nearing bear market territory, adding to mounting fears of slowing global growth.

Over the past few months, investors have retreated from stocks around the globe, pushing the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF — which invests in an index that tracks global markets excluding the U.S. — to its lowest level since May 2017. And, just last week, that group fell into into a bear market, defined as a fall of at least 20 percent from its recent peak.

Growing trade uncertainty, weak economic indicators and a series of domestic political challenges have pushed major stock market indexes in China, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Germany and Mexico into bear market territory. And more could be on the way as growth fears multiply. Key benchmarks in Spain, France and Russia are all less than 5 percent away from bear market territory.

Tariff fears have plagued auto suppliers in Germany as well. Continental, the world’s second-largest car parts maker, has cut its 2018 revenue outlook twice this year, pointing to weaker car sales in Europe and China.

The German auto industry accounts for roughly 8 percent of the country’s GDP, and these mounting corporate profit warnings have put added pressure on a German economy that has been reeling. German GDP fell in the third quarter, its first contraction since 2015, partly driven by the aforementioned emissions testing. The decline also is symptomatic of a string of warning signs over the past two months.

Among the other notable misses in key data for Europe’s largest (and the world’s fourth-largest) economy:

- Retail sales declined for the fourth consecutive month in October.

- Business confidence slipped again in December for the fourth consecutive month, hitting its lowest level since 2016.

- Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing and services hit a four-year low in November (the monthly index has dropped eight times in 2018).

The German government has lowered its 2018 GDP outlook from 2.3 percent in April to 1.6 percent as of last week. That’s down from 2.2 percent growth last year. Those declining economic fundamentals could prove even more troubling amid uncertainty around Chancellor Angela Merkel’s succession.

• Signs of a broader euro zone slowdown

Weak data in other countries, coupled with persistent worries over Britain’s exit from the European Union, has further fanned worries about growth and made investors consider which European market could be the next to fall to bear market levels.

That weak growth has even attracted the attention of the White House’s chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, who told CNBC last week that Europe was one of the areas where the administration’s 2019 economic outlook has “changed a lot.”

• Signal to the U.S.?

The economic headwinds and downbeat sentiment has forced investors to consider to what extent those recent data points could spell more pain ahead for U.S. markets, Despite the recent sell-off, relatively speaking, the major U.S. indexes are outperforming their global peers. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has fallen more than 15 percent from its 52-week high. By comparison, the S&P 500 is off more than 12 percent from its late September record, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has tumbled more than 11 percent from its October high.

The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China pushed the Shanghai Composite Index, one of China’s leading stock indexes, into a bear market in June. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index followed closely behind, breaching that level in September, and South Korea’s KOSPI did so in October.

And, last week, fresh evidence pointed to a further slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Retail sales grew at the slowest pace in 15 years in November, while industrial production expanded at the slowest clip in nearly three years. That data pushed those major Asian market indexes further into bear market territory, and the Shanghai Composite has now lost a quarter of its value since its peak in late January.

• Italy, Germany lead European market weakness

Italy and Germany, meanwhile, have been at the forefront of the economic slowdown in Europe. The Italian FTSE MIB has plunged 24 percent from its recent high in late May, while Germany’s DAX has fallen nearly 21 percent from its January closing high — entering bear market territory earlier this month.

Investors have pulled away from Italian stocks largely due to domestic concerns. Italy’s government has insisted on sticking to its lofty spending ambitions for 2019, which include a deficit equal to 2.4 percent of the country’s annual output. This prompted an unprecedented rebuke from the European Union, which rejected the draft last month and threatened sanctions. Italy’s prime minister has made concessions over the past few weeks but distance still remains between country leaders and the European Commission. Shares in the country’s banking sector have lost more than 36 percent of their value since a 52-week high in late April.

Germany’s DAX, on the other hand, has been hit especially hard by global trade friction. The index, which tracks 30 major companies in the German economy, features several firms which generate a significant portion of revenue from around the world, leaving them exposed to trade uncertainty.

The big three German automakers — Daimler, Volkswagen and BMW — have all dropped more than 20 percent from their late January highs. Daimler has been the worst performer, down 38 percent since its peak. And, during the past four months, both Daimler and BMW have issued profit warnings, blaming the prospect of new tariffs and new emissions tests for weakening demand and declines in car production. According to brokerage Bernstein, German carmakers made at least 40 percent of their profits last year in China.

But recent signs have suggested the slowing growth could be impacting U.S. equities. On Monday, the Dow finished at its lowest levels since late March and the S&P 500 posted its lowest close since October 2017. Weak China economic data drowned out hopes of progress in ongoing trade talks. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are all sitting in correction territory for the first time since March 2016.

The Dow and S&P 500 are also careening toward a historically bad final month of the year. The two benchmarks are on pace for their worst December performance since 1931, when stocks were battered during the Great Depression.


Reference: CNBC

Reade More: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/major-global-markets-already-in-bear-market-stoking-growth-fears.html  

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