MTS Gold Evening News 20190715

MTS News

MTS Gold Evening News 20190715

15 Jul 2019

· Gold prices slipped on Monday, consolidating above $1,400 pivot, as key China data assuaged concerns about global economic slowdown and boosted appetite for riskier assets.


Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,413.20 per ounce, as of 0717 GMT.

U.S. gold futures were up 0.2% at $1,415.10 an ounce.


· China’s June industrial output climbed 6.3% from a year earlier, beating a 5.2% forecast, while January-June fixed-asset investment rose 5.8% from the same period last year, surpassing a 5.5% increase forecast by analysts.


· “Better-than-expected economic data from China just erodes concerns that the global slowdown is not as deep as expected, therefore causing some profit-taking in gold,” said Howie Lee, economist, OCBC Bank.

Meanwhile, China’s economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace in at least 27 years.

“Having said that the overall growth picture still looks weak. Further tensions around (U.S.-China) trade talks and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, the need for gold as a hedge still remains strong,” he added.


· “Retail sales and industrial production data that came in at higher levels suggest that the economy is in better shape and that means less potential for stimulus from the officials in China,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets.

· Denting the bullion’s appeal, Asian shares advanced on Monday as encouraging Chinese data suggested the world’s second-biggest economy may be starting to stabilise due to ramped-up stimulus from Beijing.

Also weighing on gold prices, the dollar index inched higher on Monday against a basket of major currencies.

However, dollar index fell for three sessions in a row on prospects of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month.

· “The next big event for gold is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the end of this month, as expectations fluctuate between quarter percent cut and half percent cut, we should see that have an impact on gold prices,” McCarthy said.


· Meanwhile, hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish stance in COMEX gold in the week ended July 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said in a report on Friday.


· On the technical side, spot gold looks neutral in a narrow range of $1,404 to $1,421 per ounce, and an escape could suggest a direction, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

· Wall Street traders and analysts are undecided or else look for gold prices to be sideways next week, while Main Street remained bullish, according to the weekly Kitco News gold survey.

“I expect higher next week on a continuation and follow-through of this past week after the Fed talk,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. The Fed is expected to cut rates, which benefits the yellow metal, he continued.

George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, said he looks for gold to be “up moderately” next week, now that the market worries about any Federal Reserve hawkishness have been put to rest.


· Trading View - Gold again retest around 1435/1438 area. So wait for sell from this area.

· GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are coiling up in a narrowing congestion range below resistance clustered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. A break upward sets the stage for a test above the $1500/oz figure. Alternatively, any foray downward faces a formidable support block running down from 1375.15 through 1346.75.

· Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.4% to $15.27 per ounce and palladium climbed 1% to $1,560.47.

Platinum gained 0.5% to $832 an ounce, after hitting its highest since July 4 at $838.73.


Reference: Reuters, Daily FX, Trading View


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